Sleeper Picks: Look to streaking players to challenge Scottie Scheffler at Charles Schwab Challenge

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Matti Schmid (+20000) … If you think that this is an outlandish tout, consider that Davis Riley was +25000 to prevail pre-tournament for last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Like Riley, Schmid also would need to defeat Scottie Scheffler (who is +240 in this market), but hey, why not? Despite his brilliance, Scheffler hasn’t won at Colonial Country Club (yet). Schmid has been notoriously streaky in his two and a half years on the PGA TOUR, but it’s one way to retain playing privileges. He arrives having connected for top 10s in two of his last three starts, with proper rest along the way, so arrows are up again. While he has distance off the tee for days, he’s even more dangerous on approach and sits inside the top 30 in both greens in regulation and proximity to the hole, the latter of which is enhanced by laser-like long irons. The rub is that he’d be the first first-time winner in this tournament in 24 years.

Top 5

Pierceson Coody (+1100) … The local product from Plano, Texas, has been navigating 2025 on conditional status, so this is just his eighth start of the PGA TOUR season. With only 20 rounds logged, he hasn’t played enough to qualify officially in the statistical ranks, but it’s worth noting that 16 of them resulted in a red number, and with another three of par, he’d sit just inside the top 50 in adjusted scoring if eligible. He’s also 5-for-5 on the Korn Ferry Tour this year with a T2 among three top 10s and slots 21st on the points list. The 25-year-old’s pedigree is well-documented, but he fulfilled some of the promise with a T5 in his second appearance at Colonial last year, so fulfilling this bet wouldn’t even be unprecedented on this track.

Top 10

Michael Thorbjornsen (+700) … The first half of the 2025 season concluded with the PGA Championship, but he’s already experienced two halves in his first full season as a PGA TOUR member. After three months of wicked inconsistency, the Massachusetts resident has cashed in five straight starts. It’s a burst that was ignited with a co-runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship and a T4 (with Karl Vilips) at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Thorbjornsen opened strong in his last two events and sat just one back of eventual PGA Championship winner Scottie Scheffler at the midpoint in what his tournament debut. To answer this bell, another strong start is preferred for what is yet another tournament debut.

Top 20

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+240) … If you consider the first three bets as reaches, then this one decidedly is not, despite the market. In fact, you might even do a double-take at his odds relative to the field. His current form is contributing to a favorable kickback, but he mingles with other horses at Colonial. The South African has cashed for two top 20s in the last three editions of the tournament. It includes a T15 in 2022 and a T17 post-renovation last year. While known best as a phenomenal putter, he complemented the stick (10th in Strokes Gained: Putting here last year) with a dutiful approach game in ranking eighth in greens in regulation (at a clip of 12 per round).

David Ford (+450) … The University of North Carolina product has been pacing PGA TOUR University for a while, but he’s turned on the jets of late with a runner-up finish followed by three victories in consecutive weeks. The lefty has a total of five wins in the last eight months and sits third in the World Amateur Golf Ranking. He can no longer contribute to it, however, as he’s making his professional debut at Colonial. His college career ended with a victory in Singles at the ACC Championship, but the Tar Heels didn’t advance to the Division 1 National Championship. So, before individual awards for collegiate performances are announced, he has this time to learn a little about what life as a touring professional will be like. With his initiatives now simplified, it’s likely that odds this long for this finish won’t be available for long.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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