Expert Picks: Farmers Insurance Open

With a new season comes a new evolution for Expert Picks. Below are picks and analysis for both betting and fantasy, as fans have a new version of the PGA TOUR Fantasy Game presented by PGA TOUR Superstore for 2025. Each week our panel of experts will offer picks and analysis for the fantasy game, including insight on who will captain their roster for extra points. Users can submit their rosters via PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, with the current segment running through the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

Our Golfbet experts will also share betting picks, both for the outright winner of the tournament and which prop markets have caught their eye.

How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore. Each lineup consists of four starters, including a captain, and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four segments.

Aside from the expert insight below, Golfbet's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field in this week's edition of the Power Rankings and offers Fantasy-specific advice in Fantasy Insider.

Betting picks

WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

Winners

• Taylor Pendrith (+3500) – The Canadian finished T9 here last year and returns to Torrey Pines as a TOUR winner. He has the firepower off the tee to tame the South Course.
• Thomas Detry (+7000) – The Belgian has finished T37 and T20 in his first two trips to this event, and he started the year off well in Maui. A bit of a flier given he hasn’t won yet on TOUR but as we saw last year, sometimes longshots land in La Jolla.

Props

• Frankie Capan III, Top 20 Finish (+400) – The Korn Ferry Tour grad has been rock solid out of the gates, including a top-20 finish last week in La Quinta. Expect more big things out of him this week.
• Stephan Jaeger, Top German (+130) – Jaeger is clearly the class of this four-man market that also includes Matti Schmid, Jeremy Paul and longshot Thomas Rosenmueller.

BEN EVERILL (Senior writer, Fantasy & Betting)

Winners

• Jason Day (+2800) – Seven top 10s at Torrey Pines including wins in 2015 and 2018 and is coming off a T3 at the American Express. Spends this part of the year in California honing his game.
• Ludvig Åberg (+1000) – He is the chalk here for a reason. A T9 on debut last season and only became a better player after. Hits it long and likes tough conditions.

Props

• Sam Burns, Top 10 including ties (+170) – My one “chalk” play of the week would be for Burns to contend. Someone from the top of the board will be in the mix, but winning will need a little luck. Burns is in form, and owed some luck after his disastrous double-double finish a year ago.
• Frankie Capan III, Top 20 including ties (+360) – Something about this young man pops and the rookie will make a name for himself soon on TOUR. I want to be on the bus before others are and his odds drop.

CHRIS BREECE (Senior content manager, Golfbet)

Winners

• Max Greyserman (+2500) – With the way he is playing, you should sprinkle a little something on Greyserman each week. He’s been in the top seven in four of his last five events.
• Ben Griffin (+5500) – I would say the same thing about him as I do Greyserman. Up-and-coming players who keep knocking at the door usually break through for that first win eventually.

Props

• Ludvig Åberg, Top Continental Europe (+180) – Åberg needs to get in a lineup somewhere. This could have easily been Top European at +280, but I’d rather keep decent odds and eliminate half his competition with this market instead.
• Maverick McNealy, Top 20 (+150) – Two starts, two cuts made in 2025. That’s the first thing to note. Second, he was in contention at Sony until a Sunday 73. That’s been his only round above 69 all season.

Want to see how to set up your PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf lineup? Scroll below.

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