Odds Outlook: Hideki Matsuyama back in action at Charles Schwab Challenge

The Charles Schwab Challenge is the longest-running PGA TOUR event played on the same course annually, and this year it welcomes the newest major champ as a whopping betting favorite.

Fresh off his runaway win at the PGA Championship, Dallas resident Scottie Scheffler heads to Colonial Country Club looking for his third win in as many starts. Scheffler opened the week as a +250 betting favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook – miles ahead of Jordan Spieth (+2200), the next closest on the odds board.

Returning to “Hogan’s Alley,” where Texan Ben Hogan won five times, Scheffler makes his sixth start and is still searching for his first victory at Colonial. With a win this week, he would be entering new territory. He has never won in three consecutive starts on TOUR. He has done everything but win in the last three years at Colonial. He lost a playoff to his best pal Sam Burns in 2022, shared third in 2023, and tied for second place in 2024.

The second choice at the top of the board is Spieth, the 2016 champion and Dallas native. The 31-year-old, with three major championships but just 13 career wins, is the all-time money leader at the event. Playing the weekend in 11 of 12 tournaments, half of his eight top-10 results are first or second place (three times). Posting 62 in the final round at TPC Craig Ranch three weeks ago to secure fourth place, his best finish of the season, Spieth had the past weekend off (76-68) after missing the cut by a shot in Charlotte. Getting healthier and more comfortable each week following off-season wrist surgery, he knows experience matters at Colonial. He is the only native Texan to win this century.

The winner at the season-opening event at The Sentry, his only top-10 payday of 2025, Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) is the second-highest ranked player (No. 7) in the field from the Official World Golf Rankings. The 2021 Masters champion has produced an uneven late winter/early spring and has only played the weekend in two of his last five starts. Struggling to tune in his driver and irons, his incredible short game, fifth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, is the strength of his bag. Making his first appearance at Colonial Country Club since his first full season on TOUR in 2014, his T10 payday sprung him to his first victory the following week at the Memorial Tournament.

Cashing T25 or better in nine of 11 starts in 2025, 2020 champion Daniel Berger (+2500) is searching for his first win since the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Already with a pair of podium finishes at WM Phoenix Open (T2) and RBC Heritage (T3), he closed with 68 at Quail Hollow Club for T33, his worst payday in 11 weekends of the season. Sitting fourth in SG: Tee to Green, he ranks in the top 10 in Driving Accuracy and 34th in Greens in Regulation. Pounding the fairways and Bentgrass greens at Hogan’s Alley gives the putter time to heat up. Colonial Country Club has not played under par since Berger’s victory and ranked in the top 10 of most difficult courses on TOUR in the last two seasons, including the fifth-most difficult in 2024.

A victory this week for Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) would check off many boxes for the 34-year-old Englishman. He would join Justin Rose as the only English winners and become just the seventh international champion this century. After cashing solo seventh at a tight, demanding RBC Heritage and a T4 the following week at the Truist Championship (his best result on TOUR this season), the Ryder Cup stalwart drifted to T41 at the PGA Championship but has made 13 consecutive cuts, fourth best on TOUR. Grinding on tough courses is his strength, but he missed the cut on his last visit in 2023 after finishing T35 on debut in 2022. The third time might be the charm.

Sitting 12th on the FedExCup points list, Maverick McNealy (+3300) owns a trio of podium paydays highlighted by solo second at The Genesis Invitational in February. Cashing T33 at the PGA Championship, he now sits in eighth place in the Ryder Cup standings, just two places from automatically qualifying for the 2025 team. Since cashing T17 at Colonial in 2024, his best results in six starts, he produced his first win (2024 RSM Classic) and nine top-10 paychecks.

Top finishers from Quail Hollow Club in the field this week include co-runner-up Harris English (+4000), who posted the low round of the day on Sunday (65) and earned his best payday in a major. English, the runner-up to Spieth here in 2016, owns six T30 or better paydays from nine starts. The defending champion at Colonial, Davis Riley (+5500), returns after finishing in a three-way tie for second place, which included a triple-bogey eight on Sunday at the PGA. He also earned T4 on debut in 2022 in Fort Worth. J.T. Poston (+4000), T12 in 2024 at Colonial, sat alone in second place before a bogey-bogey finish knocked him to a share of fifth place. Jhonattan Vegas (+12000), who led the PGA after 18 and 36 holes, joined Poston in fifth place as both earned their best result in a major.

Past champions in the field include 2023 winner Emiliano Grillo (+10000), 2017 champ Kevin Kisner (+50000) and 2015 champ Chris Kirk (+11000).

Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, via FanDuel:

• +4000: Robert MacIntyre
• +4500: Aaron Rai, Si Woo Kim
• +5000: Davis Thompson, Keith Mitchell, J.J. Spaun
• +6000: Brian Harman, Michael Kim
• +6500: Ben Griffin, Andrew Novak
• +7000: Akshay Bhatia, Ryan Gerard, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes
• +7500: Bud Cauley, Thorbjørn Olesen, Harry Hall
• +8000: Kurt Kitayama, Tom Kim, Taylor Moore, Lee Hodges
• +9000: Alex Smalley, Kevin Yu, Sam Stevens, Gary Woodland, Pierceson Coody

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