Truist Championship betting preview: Keys to finding winning wagers at new venue

FLOURTOWN, Pa. – What does a signature player see when they look to prepare for a new venue?

A brand-new layout can be a cause for concern in the golf betting world. Placing weekend wagers without spreadsheets of historical course data is like playing darts blindfolded. I’ve got great news: You are not alone this week at the Truist Championship. Seventy-two rookies also have to learn a new scorecard without any prior information. Most players arrived at the property on Monday. Their first on-site observations were shaped by pre-tournament research and perhaps some input from their coaching team. Caddies and coaches will call local friends, and everyone will use their network to begin building a game plan.

The Philadelphia Cricket Club’s Wissahickon Course was designed by A.W. Tillinghast in 1922 and renovated by Keith Foster in 2013. Set in the majestic main line of Philadelphia, the process for breaking down this golden age of golf architecture gem starts with the scorecard. Hosting a Signature Event on the PGA TOUR takes incredible infrastructure. Based on the room needed for the build-out, tournament officials have chosen to re-route the course. The field will start on the eighth hole, a gentle par 4 set on the side of a hill. From there, they continue through the card in order until we get near the end.

If you are familiar with the course or just curious about the new routing, here are the specifics.

• Front nine: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
• Back nine: 17, 18, 1, 2, 3, 7, 5, 6, 4

Following a warm-up session on the practice tee and green, players will embark upon one of the two nines. Here is where the real process of building a successful blueprint starts. Each competitor knows how far they can carry the ball with each club. With players aided by a detailed yardage book, the classic nature of this design will come out. Walking alongside these star groups, it is easy to discern what they deem important. They are eyeing specific carry distances. The Wissahickon Course has 13 dogleg tee shots. Players will be looking for a landing target fit for their game.

These fairways have several corner borders defined by bunkers. Players who can carry those sandy hazards off the tee will have a huge advantage. The field will see this clearly and attack the Wissahickon Course aggressively with driver. I would pay close attention to those who can use their driving acumen. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee favors length, so the top five in that metric (Corey Conners, Ludvig Åberg, Keith Mitchell, Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay) will carry an edge into the championship.

A mere mention of Tillinghast conjures up super settings in our mind, like Winged Foot and Bethpage Black. When I think of his designs, the green complexes are what stand out. Watching the field focus on these greens and learn the various nuances is quite cool. The amount of attention they give to each putting complex tells the story. Based upon the length and softness (due to rain, with more in the forecast) of all the scoring surfaces, players will be putting for birdie a bunch. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas set the winning score Over/Under at 19.5 under. My PGA professional eyes cannot ignore the significance of Strokes Gained: Putting, Putts per GIR, Approach Putting, and converting inside 15 feet on fast greens.

When you build out a list of the most complete putting pros in the field over the last 36 rounds, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Denny McCarthy, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth and Brian Harman are at the top. The best players in the world can score. They can also do it from close range. I have watched many practice round groups hit all sorts of wedge shots. Most of the Wissahickon Course greens are open in the front to a ground approach. There are 60 – yes, 60(!) – greenside bunkers, and plenty of uneven lies in the rough. The wedge aficionados I’m eyeing, with an emphasis on sand play over the past 36 rounds, are Shane Lowry, Justin Thomas, Andrew Novak, Hideki Matsuyama and Spieth.

There are other details that have caught my attention as I watch the players prepare: approach accuracy from 100-150 yards and birdie or better percentage based upon the potential winning score. Combined, these skills scream a couple of players we haven’t seen win in a little while.

Patrick Cantlay (+2000 at FanDuel Sportsbook) has two career wins on bentgrass greens in the Mid-Atlantic region. Both were the BMW Championship. Two elite, small field events with no cut. Cantlay’s been awesome off the tee (ranked fifth in SG: Off the Tee) and on approach (ranked ninth SG: Approach). We’ve seen some putting problems, but six of his seven wins have come on Bentgrass greens. I think the change in agronomy is just what Cantlay’s putting needs.

My second early lean is going to make some waves. We have all been waiting for the next Jordan Spieth (+2800) win. In his last four starts, including the Masters, Spieth has finished 12th, 14th, 18th and fourth in Dallas on Sunday. You’ve read his name twice up above, and he’s ranked 15th SG: Off-the-Tee and 12th for Driving Distance in the field. The trend is our friend here, and who wouldn’t love that career Grand Slam storyline gaining traction coming into Quail Hollow?

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